Why is Pakistan Under-attack

January 2017’s Pakistan

Ton of positive news were coming, she was moving rapidly towards prosperity. International media was running out of words to appreciate the new torrent of developments of Pakistan. CEOs of leading international companies were praising Pakistan’s economic performance and government’s policies.

Pakistan’s Economy Is a Pleasant Surprise

Bloomberg

“It’s the fastest growing markets we have around the world. Anywhere where wealth is growing and technology is being adopted, e-commerce is being adopted like crazy,”

-eBay Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Devin Wenig

 

Pakistan has been ranked 52nd, ahead from India (60th), among 79 developing economies in the Inclusive Development Index (IDI), according to a World Economic Forum (WEF) report. In 2017, Pakistan top pick for investors according to leading financial publication Barron’s Asia. Pakistan was moving faster than ever towards stability and prosperity. I was pleased when the international media reports positive things about Pakistan. The first ever International Pakistani Cricket league the “Pakistan Super League” final was scheduled in Lahore. After so many years international cricket was coming home. It was nice to see when we get acknowledgement and recognition from the international media.

While the successful closure of IMF’s program itself was a testament that Pakistan has done well on macroeconomic stability, there are a number of other forecasts about the country’s positive economic outlook. The Asian Development Bank recently raised the growth projections for 2017 to 5.2 per cent, while The Economist termed Pakistan the fastest-growing Muslim economy.

 

On the capital market front, the announcement of Pakistan’s inclusion in Morgan Stanley’s Emerging Market Index from May 2017 has started to make waves, with the staggering growth in equity markets in recent months, with KSE-100 outperforming not only the frontier markets that Pakistan is currently a part of but also the emerging market group that the country is about to join. The news of Pakistan Stock Exchange’s takeover by a Chinese consortium with Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange as partners has further strengthened investor confidence.

KSE-100 crosses 50,000 points, touches record high

Pakistan is also claiming a spot on international investors’ radar. While Renault has already forged a partnership with a local group for $100 million initial investment, other leading automakers like Volkswagen and Fiat have also been closely looking at investment prospects. Similarly, companies like Coca-Cola and Friesland Campina have also been aggressive about their investment plans for Pakistan.

 

The Startups

Alongside all these massive projects, the nascent tech startups of Pakistan have also created a buzz. With incubators and accelerators like Telenor Velocity, Plan 9, Plan X and the recently launched Jazz’s national incubation center, a number of promising startups have started to catch investor attention. More than 10 startups in Pakistan raised seed funding or venture capital last year, with many more cozying up national and international investors this year. While the numbers still look small, both in terms of startup pipeline and funding ticket size, it seems that the entrepreneurship ecosystem in Pakistan has started to take roots, promising dividends for future.

CPEC Driven Prosperity

The entire world is engaged in an economic war China also is boosting its economy. Their leaders are trying to ensure that their country is economically sound and they have succeeded in achieving their goals.”

The net result of regional connectivity is invoked that would ultimately profit the entire region. However scarcely mentioned are possible socio-cultural implications of the project along the eastern and western regions where CPEC routes traverse and Pakistani society at large.

Pakistan; as being one the major countries in south east Asia can benefit a lot form this project as it will help the country to eliminate the energy crisis and other transportation problems. China; on the other hand, will also gain a lot of benefit from this project. This is one the main reasons that they are investing more than 46 million dollars in a foreign land. According to sources; this is the biggest investment in a foreign land by China. Energy is one of the main problems of China. China is one of the major oil importers in the world and with this economic corridor; they will have a route for safe and sustain energy through pipelines.

Analysis of facts and figures shows that CPEC is not only critically important for both countries but also a fate changer for the entire region .
Pakistan needs it to overcome its economic, development, social and energy problems.
China needs it to expand its periphery of influence, consolidate its global presence and securing future supply routes of energy and trade goods .
It’s a win situation for both countries.
World needs it because of its Geo strategic location .
Pakistan should embrace this huge opportunity and use it wisely to be able to reap the economic benefits of this corridor and enhance its regional power and prestige.

February 2017’s Pakistan

India has objected to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) “because it passes through the disputed territory of Kashmir (Gilgit-Baltistan).” India, denied land transit by Pakistan for its trade to Afghanistan and Central Asia, has agreed with Iran to build Chabahar port on the Iranian coast as an alternative link to Afghanistan. Pakistan has arrested an Indian spy in Balochistan in earlier 2016 as proof of India’s messing with the Baloch insurgency. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi stirred the pot further by suggesting Indian involvement in Balochistan, in his Independence Day speech.

It is strange that in our parts trade routes are seen as harbingers of war rather than peace and prosperity. Pakistan’s protest that India uses Afghanistan to harm Pakistan implies rejection of Chabahar and its Zaranj-Delaram highway to Afghanistan. The United States, given its “pivot” to the east against China, is seen as partnering India in its anti-Pakistan strategy. The flaw lies in Pakistan’s isolationism in this regard because China, already invested big in India, Iran and Afghanistan, doesn’t go along with Pakistan’s worldview.

The leisure developments of India’s RAW-Afghanistan’s NDS Nexus were predicted by many became the reality when Pakistan has encountered the wave of terrorism in February 2017 which left everybody dazed.

Conspiracy theory cannot be ruled out. There are interests of regional players and big powers. There could be a number of possibilities of terrorist attack in Quetta before. The India-Iran nexus has not been much explored by law enforcing authorities. Iran has its right to use Chabahar and to cooperate with India. One has to see if the Chabahar Pact has no implications for Pakistan’s security interests. The reports in Indian media are alarming.

Kalbushan Yadav’s case would largely determine the impacts of Chabahar on Pakistan. There is an Afghan connection and its NDS activities in Balochistan. There is a collaboration between NDS and RAW and this collaboration targets CPEC projects. Pakistan has to make efforts to expose the NDS-Raw nexus.

Another possibility could be China’s home gown East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). Some of its elements might still be hiding inside Pakistan and in neighboring countries and they might be used to disrupt the CPEC projects by anti-CPEC elements.

The fourth factor could be role of the extra-regional powers and their allies in the Gulf that could be upset by the building of the Gwadar Port as it might damage their maritime commercial interests. All these involvements present the presence of the maritime great game in Gwadar to upset Chinese interests in the Indian Ocean.

The Quetta carnage and the wave of terrorist attacks in February 2017 are interrelated with the CPEC. More than 100 people have lost their lives in recent wave of terror attack in Pakistan beginning from Lahore where senior police officials were targeted. It was the first time when All the four provinces and FATA tribal agencies came under these attacks.